Cashout Calculator
See if the book's cashout offer is actually fair — or if you're giving up value. Cashout is a second bet they place in their favor.
BAD CASHOUT OFFER
You're giving up value by accepting this offer. The book is keeping €10.40 from you.
-€10.40
HIDDEN CASHOUT TAX
94 / 100
FAIRNESS SCORE
Enter your open bet details
= 50.0% implied
= pays €200.00
= 80.0% implied
= 93.5% of fair value
Cashout is a new bet offered by the book — always priced in their favor.
True Value Now
€160.00
What your position is actually worth
Book Cashout Offer
€149.60
What the book offers you
Hidden Cashout Tax
-€10.40
Value you're giving up
Offer vs True Value
93.50%
You're getting less than fair value
VALUE VISUALIZATION
Book Cashout
Instant, but expensive
€149.60
Self-Hedge on Exchange
More work, better result
€156.80
+€7.20better outcome
Why hedge yourself?
Exchange hedge estimate assumes ~2% commission. Actual result depends on available liquidity and exact lay odds at the time of hedging.
HOLD
Best Move (EV)
Holding has more expected value. You'd be giving up €10.40 in expected value by taking this cashout.
Lock in profits and protect your stake, even at a slight cost.
Cashing out early frees capital. Time value matters.
If your original edge still holds, holding has more EV.
Don't let fear of loss drive the decision. Run the numbers.
Books rarely offer cashouts that benefit you. Always compare to fair value.
Stake: 100 at 2.00. Current odds: 1.25. The true value of your position is 168.00. The book offers you 149.60.
| Item | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Stake | 100 | Your original bet |
| Original Odds | 2.00 | Decimal odds at placement |
| Current Odds | 1.25 | Market has moved in your favor |
| True Value | 168.00 | What your position is actually worth |
| Book Offer | 149.60 | What the book will pay you |
| Hidden Tax | -18.40 | Value the book keeps -- 10.95% margin |
- Cashout is always priced with a margin -- the book makes money on both the original bet and the cashout.
- The fair cashout value equals your potential return divided by the current odds -- no margin included.
- Self-hedging on a betting exchange is almost always a better deal than taking the book's cashout.
- Partial cashout reduces the hidden cost proportionally -- but the margin is still there.
- Always compare the cashout offer to the true value. If the ratio is below 90%, the cost is significant.
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