Variance Simulator

Edge creates the direction. Variance creates the waves. See how a profitable process really looks over hundreds of bets.

FREERISKVARIANCE

Variance is normal.

Short-term results are noisy. Your edge only reveals itself over large samples.

1. Inputs

Set your betting profile parameters

Win Rate

%

= 55.0% implied win

Average Odds

= 50.0% implied

Number of Bets

1,000 bets per path

Flat Stake Size

%

EV/bet: +0.100 u

Preset Profiles

Your data stays private. Always.

2. Results Overview

Run the simulation to see results.

3. Simulated Bankroll Paths (10,000 simulations)

Average PathTypical Range (10th-90th percentile)Best 10% of PathsWorst 10% of Paths

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Adjust the inputs above and click Run Simulation.

4. What This Actually Means

You are NOT unlucky.

Even profitable bettors experience brutal short-term swings.

A good strategy can still lose for months.

Variance does not care about your emotions.

Survival matters more than prediction.

Most bettors fail because they size too aggressively.

5. Reality Check

Losing streaks happen faster than expected

Bigger stakes increase emotional pressure

Variance feels worse than it looks mathematically

Most bankroll blowups come from sizing mistakes

Bottom line: Edge without survival is worthless.

6. Strategy Comparison (10,000 simulations)

Strategy	Avg Growth (after 1,000 bets)	Probability of Profit	Typical Drawdown (10th-90th)	Worst 10% Outcome	Risk Level
Flat 1% (Conservative)	+9.8% +98 units	78%	-12% (-4% to -22%)	-75 units (-7.5%)	Low
Flat 3% (Balanced)	+29.4% +294 units	73%	-31% (-10% to -45%)	-185 units (-18.5%)	Medium
Kelly (Full) (Aggressive)	+88.7% +887 units	52%	-60% (-20% to -85%)	-420 units (-42.0%)	High