Bankroll Survival Simulator

See whether your bankroll strategy actually survives variance long enough for your edge to work. Most bettors don't lose because they lack an edge. They lose because they don't survive variance.

FREESTRATEGYVARIANCE

Survival beats greed.

Long-term profitability comes from staying alive during bad runs.

1Simulation Inputs
€
%
%

Percentage of bankroll staked per bet.

Monte Carlo simulation using real variance.

2Survival Summary
Strong survival profile.
Your bankroll strategy has a high probability of surviving variance.
Survival Probability
100.0%
Chance of not going broke
Risk of Ruin
0.0%
Chance of losing entire bankroll
Typical Drawdown
-29.2%
Typical worst drawdown
Expected Growth
+642.4%
Average bankroll after 1000 bets
3Simulated Bankroll Paths
Top 10%AverageBottom 10% (Ruin)
40801201602002402803203604004404805205606006406807207608008408809209601000Number of Bets0k35k70k105k140k

Each line is one of 1000 simulated bankroll paths.

4Drawdown Distribution
-5%-15%-25%-35%-45%+Drawdown0%8%16%24%32%
Typical worst drawdown
-29.2%
Most users with this setup experience a drawdown around this size.
5What This Means
Your edge is real - survival matters.
With a 100.0% survival rate and this staking plan, your bankroll has a strong chance of long-term success. Survival is what lets your edge play out.
Drawdowns are normal - expect them.
A typical worst drawdown of 29.2% is expected even with a genuine edge. Expect them and stay disciplined.
Aggressive staking kills bankrolls.
Higher growth comes with exponentially higher risk of ruin. Protect your bankroll first.
6Reality Check
Even elite bettors experience:
  • 20-40% drawdowns
  • Losing months (or longer)
  • Variance they didn't see coming
  • Emotional challenges
Survival is a skill. Master it.
7Compare Staking Strategies

Results based on Monte Carlo simulation of 1000 bets.

StrategyStake Example (at odds 2.00)Survival ProbabilityTypical DrawdownExpected Growth (1000 bets)Risk Level
Flat Staking
2% flat
2.00%100.0%-29.3%+633.6%
Low
Odds-Based StakingYOU
1-3% range
1-3%100.0%-29.3%+633.6%
Medium
Kelly Criterion
Full Kelly
Variable92.3%-89.7%+908394.4%
High

Results based on 1000 Monte Carlo simulations of 1000 bets.

Learn More

3-Minute Walkthrough

How to read your survival odds and avoid the most common bankroll mistakes.

Watch video

Risk of ruin explained (and how to avoid it)

What the number means and how to keep yours below 5%.

Read article
Next step

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